Fully diluted valuation, unlock schedules, emissions, concentration, and dilution scenarios.
By the end, you should be able to
- Explain FDV and its assumptions.
- Read an unlock schedule as potential supply.
- Build a dilution scenario without pretending it is a forecast.
Market cap and FDV answer different questions
Illustrative supply shows the assumption embedded in FDV.
FDV is a scenario metric
Fully diluted valuation commonly multiplies current price by a maximum, fully issued, or other provider-defined diluted supply figure. It asks what the network would be valued at if additional units existed at today’s price—an assumption, not a forecast. Always name the supply convention used.
Unlocks change available supply
Vesting can release team, investor, ecosystem, or treasury units. The market effect depends on recipient behavior, liquidity, demand, communication, and whether the schedule was already expected.
Emissions can fund security or participation
New issuance may compensate validators, incentivize liquidity, or fund development. Evaluate who receives units, what service is provided, and whether the incentive creates durable demand.
What this does not tell you
- FDV assumes a price that may not survive additional supply.
- Maximum supply can be undefined or changeable.
- Public schedules may omit discretionary treasury behavior or governance changes.
Build a dilution table
Create a simple current-versus-future supply scenario.
- Record price, circulating supply, and maximum supply from a named source.
- Calculate current market cap and illustrative FDV.
- Find one scheduled unlock and list the assumptions preventing a price conclusion.
Check your understanding
1. What assumption does FDV commonly make?
2. Does an unlock guarantee selling?
3. What should emissions be compared with?