Reviewed September 10, 2026
Use this template to answer one narrow question. Record reproducible evidence, distinguish facts from inference, include the strongest competing explanation, and define what would change the conclusion.
At a glance
- A useful question can be addressed with observable evidence.
- Every metric should include value, units, timestamp, source, and method.
- A thesis is an interpretation—not a fact—and should include uncertainty.
- Invalidation identifies evidence that would cause the thesis to be revised or abandoned.
Step-by-step walkthrough
- Asset and question: identify the asset precisely and ask one narrow, answerable question.
- Observation: describe the movement or condition without explaining it.
- Sources: record provider, timestamp, units, window, identifier, and method.
- Market structure: summarize liquidity, spread, depth, venue, and execution assumptions.
- Supply and protocol: record supply estimates, issuance, controls, and dependencies.
- Competing explanations: write at least two plausible interpretations.
- Risk and invalidation: identify downside, missing evidence, and the observation that changes the view.
- Next check: name the most valuable fact to verify and when the brief should be reviewed.
From observation to testable thesis
The template prevents an interesting move from becoming an unsupported conclusion.
| Signal | What it can mean | Important caveat |
|---|---|---|
| Observation: price +15% | A market move occurred in a named window. | It does not explain cause or execution quality. |
| Evidence: volume and depth also rose | The move has broader market confirmation. | Definitions, venues, and timestamps still matter. |
| Thesis: catalyst increased attention | A plausible explanation supported by evidence. | Define alternatives and invalidation. |
Common mistakes and edge cases
- Beginning with a conclusion and collecting only supporting evidence.
- Copying values without timestamp, units, identifier, or provider definition.
- Using adjectives such as “strong” or “safe” without a measurable comparison.
- Leaving the thesis unfalsifiable or omitting the next review date.
Reusable checklist
Checklist selections are temporary and are not transmitted or treated as a safety score.